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Student strikes back at lecturers idea. You won't believe what happens next!
Last year I took a management class as an extra class for points. Little did I know that the main lecturer would spend the whole semester preaching socialisty ideas at us. There was a lot of interesting stuff in the class really as it was mainly about labour-management relationships, but whenever she presented her ideas about the economy it often left me cringing. The best is when she got all exasperated claiming she couldn't understand how productivity and wages were linked. Anyway. She presented us the idea based off a portion of this video suggesting it could be good for the New Zealand economy, I’d like to R1 the first idea of hers (Mods said I could!). She made us discuss the idea of Reducing the work week without reducing pay, implementing profit sharing and management-labour wage gap restrictions. This would be voluntary as governments would offer to cover a company’s payroll taxes in exchange for implementing these 3 things. I am not R1ing the 20 year old video I am R1ing my lecturers idea based on this in a New Zealand context, the idea it’s from is at around 37 minutes. I’ll admit I don’t know much about taxation, but according to the oecd website, New Zealand doesn’t actually have a payroll tax. Oops. What if the government legislates reduced work week and same pay in then? Well, I’m going to attempt to use the 3-equation model to see what would happen. I’m basing this off the idea that this law would be a supply shift, shifting the wage setting curve upwards, just like unions not exercising bargaining restraint in context of wages. I’m trying to keep the model simple because I did this course a year ago, but feel free to criticise and/or correct me. Assumptions: - wage setters define price level using domestic price level so ERU is vertical.
Adaptive inflation expectations.
Rational expectations in FOREX market.
Small open economy = can’t influence r* ( world interest rates)
I can’t remember any others right now.
q= nominal exchange rate (^ = depreciation). r = real exchange rate. pi= inflation. N = employment, y = real output. w/p= real wage. Enjoy my beautiful hand drawn graphs Period 0: Start at equilibrium point A. Government introduces legislation, Wage Setting curve shifts upwards, Now there is a difference between equilibrium real wage and real wage, inflation increases(point B). Central bank forecasts the new PC and sets at point C, forex market predicts r>r*, central bank knows this so sets r0 on the RX curve. Forex will cause currency to appreciate and overshoot. Period 1 onwards: The higher r0 and appreciated q0 cause disinflation, IS curve at point C. Real wages are lower. Economy will gradually shift from point C to point Z. Currency will depreciate to new appreciated equilibrium level, Inflation will return to target, real wage will return to old equilibrium level, real interest rates will return to world rate r*. Lower equilibrium employment and output ( Ye’ IF that doesn’t make sense, just ignore and look at my pretty graph. I know you don't usually include the ws ps graph as it's shown through the ERU but I wanted to include the visual about real wages. And I made a mistake of labeling it PC not PS on the graph. So what I get from this model is that the legislation probably wouldn’t improve real wages, but it would result in a lower rate of equilibrium employment/output and an appreciated real exchange rate. This doesn’t seem like it would have the desired effect of sharing the gains of production, or increasing employment. More leisure time though so yay.
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Using options prices (implied volatility) to "predict" future volatility in Forex markets
I am considering a strategy which makes use of the typical volatility in a given currency pair. I am currently using the average volatility from the previous days/weeks, but am curious if there are more advanced models (probably developed by banks and other options traders) that can provide a forward view of expected volatility. One example of this might be a timed event like the Fed decision, which caused a lot of movement in FX and which was entirely predictable, but obviously not reflected in the historical volatility.
Which ETF to buy in anticipation of a stronger AUD
Hi all, My ETF portfolio includes A200 (Top Australian companies), VEU (Ex-USA markets), and IVV (S&P 500). A lot of commentary recently expecting the AUD to rise above $0.80 and above. Assuming this is correct, which ETF would it be best to be diverting my pay checks into right now? I’m thinking IVV, because the stronger AUD should be making it cheaper right? Note that I’ve just started investing into ETFs in the last few months so not too concerned with mainting portfolio allocations yet.
So there seems to be a lot of new people on this sub. And makes sense if you have questions a lot of time you'll turn to reddit for the answers (I know I do). Well here are some tips that I think would benefit new traders.
Don't trade ANY Euro pairs. Look I know it's the most traded pair it goes up and down really fast and there's so much potential for you to make money. Turns out there's even more for you to lose money. It's way too volatile specially if you don't know what you're doing. EUUSD is the worst offender.
Trade the Daily. Might think you're cool looking at charts every x amount of times during the day. You get to tell your friends and family that you trade all day and they might be impressed at what you're doing but unless you have some years under you stick to the daily. There's less noise. You can see clearer trends and when you don't stare at the screen all day you're less emotional therefore a more effective trader. I only look at the chart 15 minutes a day to either enter close or manage my trades. Whatever happens when I'm gone is what happens.
There is no holy grail indicator Look for it all you want. It doesn't exist. There are good indicators. There are bad indicators. There are some indicators that are so broken if you do the opposite of what they're intended for you'll actually make a profit. But the fact remains that there's no perfect one. Stop looking. What you should be looking for is an indicator that fits with your strategy.
What currencies to pick. I actually never see this brought up. The notion in forex is that all pairs can be traded equally. To a certain extent that's not false. But until you get the hang of it stick to a strict trading diet. Look for pairs that trend a lot. Duh look for the trend I can hear you say. When I say trend I don't mean a couple of days or weeks. I mean a couple of months. Half a year. Pairs that do that have a higher tendency to stick with one direction for a while. That's where you make your money. An easy way to identify those pairs as well is putting together a volatile currency (USD) with a less volatile one(JPY).
USE YOUR SL Trust me even if not putting a SL has netted you all kinds of gains eventually the market will turn around and bite you. With no safety net you'll lose most if not all your profit. The best offense is a good defense.
How to pick your TP and SL level. Most new traders care so much about that. I put it near the bottom because in my opinion you should know everything listed first. This is my opinion and I use it for my strategy I use the ATR(average true range) indicator. It's a really helpful tool that helps you identify the range at which the candles will either rise or fall. Obviously you want to set your TP inside of that range and your SL slightly outside of it.
Lot sizes. Everyone has a different story about how they pick their lot size. The general consensus is don't risk over 2% of your account. But I'm a simple man and I can't be bothered to figure out what my risk is every single time. So what I do is I put $0.10 for every $100 I have on the account. I then assign $300(minimum) to each pair. That's $0.30 per pair. It's easy to remember. 10 cent for every $100. If you're able to blow $100 with $0.10 then you probably shouldn't trade.
How to avoid reversals. Tbh you can't. There's no way to predict the future so eventually you'll get hit by one. What you can do however is minimize the blow. How I do it is for every pair I take two trades. If you remember in the previous tip is said I do about$0.30 per pair well I divide it 2:1. I take one trade with a TP(2) and one without (1). If my TP is hit I pocket that amount and if the trend keeps going in my direction I make even more. If the trend decides to end or reverses my losses are minimal because at least I kept half.
There is NO right way to trade. Stop listening to people telling the best way to trade is fundamentals or naked charts of to use some specific indicator. There are no right way to do this. It's as flexible and unlimited as your imagination. I personally use indicators but if that's not your thing do YOU! Just remember to manage your trades properly and be level headed when trading. Hell if your trading strategy is flipping a coin with proper trade management you'd probably make some money (don't quote me on that).
Trade money you're willing to lose Don't trade your rent money.
That's all I have for now. If anyone sees this and wants to add more feel free. Hope this helps someone.
Anyone else's Instagram infested with Forex "traders"
Its obvious from the get go they havent a fucking clue about trading currency or how markets work, and are simply trying to show off a fake Jordan Belfort type lifestyle (rented Lambo, used BMW, and a trip to either Ibiza or Dubai) in order to get people to fall for their pyramid scheme. They all wear Canada Goose and Gucci and look like they'd be selling coke if they weren't trapped in a mlm. Just wondering if anyone else is tired of seeing this shit. Do you know anyone who's fallen for it? I'm curious as to how the scam actually works.
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I currently manage around half a million dollars and have been trading for 6+ years with 3 years of consistent profitability. Paid for my trading lessons the hard way by losing a lot of money at first. Here's some advice that might help you. 1) Treat trading like a business. I know you probably heard this 100 times before but I feel like I should emphasize this point. Majority of traders overestimate their ability to make money and underestimate their risk exposure. 2) Think long term. The more complex your trading system is, the less freedom it has in terms of flexibility because of too many variables in your analysis. So, keep your trading system simple. 3) Do not rationalize or predict the market. Do not look for comfort in your strategy. In fact, do the reverse. Find comfort in the thought that markets are chaotic and there's always a good chance of you losing a lot of money. This should keep you up on your toes and controls your greed during a profitable streak (You are not a money printing machine, trust me. ) 4) Every trade you open should be assumed as a loss. This is very important in terms of having a healthy mindset towards managing risk. I never open a position based on how much money I can make. I do it based on how much I can afford to lose in this particular trade. 5) Biggest mistake I have observed while working with other traders is not doing their homework. If you don't plan your trades before the day even began, then you will develop a mindset of chasing the market which will lead to your downfall. Which brings me to my next point 6) Maintain three things - a) your daily trading notes that you read before you begin trading b) market observation notes which includes particular strategies and observations in specific markets and c) a full fledged trading journal where you record everything you traded. Always remember that majority of your trading work is done when you're not trading. 7) Journaling is the most important and also most neglected part of trading and most traders, including some very good traders do it in a wrong way. How do I know that? Let me ask you something : Tell me about what kind of trading setups were the most and least profitable in the last 100 trades. Explain them to me in detail including your analysis and opinion on what you think might have happened. If you can answer this in detail and with specific examples from your last 100 trades then I know you have a good journaling habit. If you cannot , then it's time to improve on your record keeping. Remember that your journals are the only way you can guarantee that you will grow as a trader. 8) Remember this no matter what - Not having a position in the market is itself a position if you know what you are doing. There's no need for you to always trade all day everyday and try to make money. In fact, I can guarantee you that markets will not always behave according to your trading system and during those times trying to "find a needle in a haystack " type of behavior is reckless and will take an emotional toll on your mind. Just sit on the sidelines if the market isn't moving according to your system. 9) There's no thing as overbought or oversold scenarios especially in forex. Heaving a bearish bias because the market moved up by a lot is just ridiculous and most likely guarantee that you miss out on bullish scenarios. If you start developing a bearish bias after a huge bullish move then you better have a damn good reason for it instead of just saying " It moved up by a lot so I'm expecting a reversal". 10) This one is a personal opinion. Always remember to take breaks and relax during the weekends. Managing stress while maintaining performance is a huge part of the job and I don't want you to burn out after a few months of serious trading everyday. Maintain a decent social life outside of trading to keep your sanity intact. Get some hobbies. Your health and well being is very important to your long term performance as a trader so don't neglect it.
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Forex Market Prediction using Neural Networks and Armax
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