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Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part 3/3
Welcome to the third and final part of this chapter. Thank you all for the 100s of comments and upvotes - maybe this post will take us above 1,000 for this topic! Keep any feedback or questions coming in the replies below. Before you read this note, please start with Part I and then Part II so it hangs together and makes sense. Part III
Squeezes and other risks
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
Squeezes and other risks
We are going to cover three common risks that traders face: events; squeezes, asymmetric bets.
Economic releases can cause large short-term volatility. The most famous is Non Farm Payrolls, which is the most widely watched measure of US employment levels and affects the price of many instruments.On an NFP announcement currencies like EURUSD might jump (or drop) 100 pips no problem. This is fine and there are trading strategies that one may employ around this but the key thing is to be aware of these releases.You can find economic calendars all over the internet - including on this site - and you need only check if there are any major releases each day or week. For example, if you are trading off some intraday chart and scalping a few pips here and there it would be highly sensible to go into a known data release flat as it is pure coin-toss and not the reason for your trading. It only takes five minutes each day to plan for the day ahead so do not get caught out by this. Many retail traders get stopped out on such events when price volatility is at its peak.
Short squeezes bring a lot of danger and perhaps some opportunity. The story of VW and Porsche is the best short squeeze ever. Throughout these articles we've used FX examples wherever possible but in this one instance the concept (which is also highly relevant in FX) is best illustrated with an historical lesson from a different asset class. A short squeeze is when a participant ends up in a short position they are forced to cover. Especially when the rest of the market knows that this participant can be bullied into stopping out at terrible levels, provided the market can briefly drive the price into their pain zone. There's a reason for the car, don't worry Hedge funds had been shorting VW stock. However the amount of VW stock available to buy in the open market was actually quite limited. The local government owned a chunk and Porsche itself had bought and locked away around 30%. Neither of these would sell to the hedge-funds so a good amount of the stock was un-buyable at any price. If you sell or short a stock you must be prepared to buy it back to go flat at some point. To cut a long story short, Porsche bought a lot of call options on VW stock. These options gave them the right to purchase VW stock from banks at slightly above market price. Eventually the banks who had sold these options realised there was no VW stock to go out and buy since the German government wouldn’t sell its allocation and Porsche wouldn’t either. If Porsche called in the options the banks were in trouble. Porsche called in the options which forced the shorts to buy stock - at whatever price they could get it. The price squeezed higher as those that were short got massively squeezed and stopped out. For one brief moment in 2008, VW was the world’s most valuable company. Shorts were burned hard. Incredible event Porsche apparently made $11.5 billion on the trade. The BBC described Porsche as “a hedge fund with a carmaker attached.” If this all seems exotic then know that the same thing happens in FX all the time. If everyone in the market is talking about a key level in EURUSD being 1.2050 then you can bet the market will try to push through 1.2050 just to take out any short stops at that level. Whether it then rallies higher or fails and trades back lower is a different matter entirely. This brings us on to the matter of crowded trades. We will look at positioning in more detail in the next section. Crowded trades are dangerous for PNL. If everyone believes EURUSD is going down and has already sold EURUSD then you run the risk of a short squeeze. For additional selling to take place you need a very good reason for people to add to their position whereas a move in the other direction could force mass buying to cover their shorts. A trading mentor when I worked at the investment bank once advised me: Always think about which move would cause the maximum people the maximum pain. That move is precisely what you should be watching out for at all times.
Also known as picking up pennies in front of a steamroller. This risk has caught out many a retail trader. Sometimes it is referred to as a "negative skew" strategy. Ideally what you are looking for is asymmetric risk trade set-ups: that is where the downside is clearly defined and smaller than the upside. What you want to avoid is the opposite. A famous example of this going wrong was the Swiss National Bank de-peg in 2012. The Swiss National Bank had said they would defend the price of EURCHF so that it did not go below 1.2. Many people believed it could never go below 1.2 due to this. Many retail traders therefore opted for a strategy that some describe as ‘picking up pennies in front of a steam-roller’. They would would buy EURCHF above the peg level and hope for a tiny rally of several pips before selling them back and keep doing this repeatedly. Often they were highly leveraged at 100:1 so that they could amplify the profit of the tiny 5-10 pip rally. Then this happened. Something that changed FX markets forever The SNB suddenly did the unthinkable. They stopped defending the price. CHF jumped and so EURCHF (the number of CHF per 1 EUR) dropped to new lows very fast. Clearly, this trade had horrific risk : reward asymmetry: you risked 30% to make 0.05%. Other strategies like naively selling options have the same result. You win a small amount of money each day and then spectacularly blow up at some point down the line.
We have talked about short squeezes. But how do you know what the market position is? And should you care? Let’s start with the first. You should definitely care. Let’s imagine the entire market is exceptionally long EURUSD and positioning reaches extreme levels. This makes EURUSD very vulnerable. To keep the price going higher EURUSD needs to attract fresh buy orders. If everyone is already long and has no room to add, what can incentivise people to keep buying? The news flow might be good. They may believe EURUSD goes higher. But they have already bought and have their maximum position on. On the flip side, if there’s an unexpected event and EURUSD gaps lower you will have the entire market trying to exit the position at the same time. Like a herd of cows running through a single doorway. Messy. We are going to look at this in more detail in a later chapter, where we discuss ‘carry’ trades. For now this TRYJPY chart might provide some idea of what a rush to the exits of a crowded position looks like. A carry trade position clear-out in action Knowing if the market is currently at extreme levels of long or short can therefore be helpful. The CFTC makes available a weekly report, which details the overall positions of speculative traders “Non Commercial Traders” in some of the major futures products. This includes futures tied to deliverable FX pairs such as EURUSD as well as products such as gold. The report is called “CFTC Commitments of Traders” ("COT"). This is a great benchmark. It is far more representative of the overall market than the proprietary ones offered by retail brokers as it covers a far larger cross-section of the institutional market. Generally market participants will not pay a lot of attention to commercial hedgers, which are also detailed in the report. This data is worth tracking but these folks are simply hedging real-world transactions rather than speculating so their activity is far less revealing and far more noisy. You can find the data online for free and download it directly here. Raw format is kinda hard to work with However, many websites will chart this for you free of charge and you may find it more convenient to look at it that way. Just google “CFTC positioning charts”. But you can easily get visualisations You can visually spot extreme positioning. It is extremely powerful. Bear in mind the reports come out Friday afternoon US time and the report is a snapshot up to the prior Tuesday. That means it is a lagged report - by the time it is released it is a few days out of date. For longer term trades where you hold positions for weeks this is of course still pretty helpful information. As well as the absolute level (is the speculative market net long or short) you can also use this to pick up on changes in positioning. For example if bad news comes out how much does the net short increase? If good news comes out, the market may remain net short but how much did they buy back? A lot of traders ask themselves “Does the market have this trade on?” The positioning data is a good method for answering this. It provides a good finger on the pulse of the wider market sentiment and activity. For example you might say: “There was lots of noise about the good employment numbers in the US. However, there wasn’t actually a lot of position change on the back of it. Maybe everyone who wants to buy already has. What would happen now if bad news came out?” In general traders will be wary of entering a crowded position because it will be hard to attract additional buyers or sellers and there could be an aggressive exit. If you want to enter a trade that is showing extreme levels of positioning you must think carefully about this dynamic.
Retail traders often drastically underestimate how correlated their bets are. Through bitter experience, I have learned that a mistake in position correlation is the root of some of the most serious problems in trading. If you have eight highly correlated positions, then you are really trading one position that is eight times as large. Bruce Kovner of hedge fund, Caxton Associates For example, if you are trading a bunch of pairs against the USD you will end up with a simply huge USD exposure. A single USD-trigger can ruin all your bets. Your ideal scenario — and it isn’t always possible — would be to have a highly diversified portfolio of bets that do not move in tandem. Look at this chart. Inverted USD index (DXY) is green. AUDUSD is orange. EURUSD is blue. Chart from TradingView So the whole thing is just one big USD trade! If you are long AUDUSD, long EURUSD, and short DXY you have three anti USD bets that are all likely to work or fail together. The more diversified your portfolio of bets are, the more risk you can take on each. There’s a really good video, explaining the benefits of diversification from Ray Dalio. A systematic fund with access to an investable universe of 10,000 instruments has more opportunity to make a better risk-adjusted return than a trader who only focuses on three symbols. Diversification really is the closest thing to a free lunch in finance. But let’s be pragmatic and realistic. Human retail traders don’t have capacity to run even one hundred bets at a time. More realistic would be an average of 2-3 trades on simultaneously. So what can be done? For example:
You might diversify across time horizons by having a mix of short-term and long-term trades.
You might diversify across asset classes - trading some FX but also crypto and equities.
You might diversify your trade generation approach so you are not relying on the same indicators or drivers on each trade.
You might diversify your exposure to the market regime by having some trades that assume a trend will continue (momentum) and some that assume we will be range-bound (carry).
And so on. Basically you want to scan your portfolio of trades and make sure you are not putting all your eggs in one basket. If some trades underperform others will perform - assuming the bets are not correlated - and that way you can ensure your overall portfolio takes less risk per unit of return. The key thing is to start thinking about a portfolio of bets and what each new trade offers to your existing portfolio of risk. Will it diversify or amplify a current exposure?
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits
One common mistake is to get bored and restless and put on crap trades. This just means trades in which you have low conviction. It is perfectly fine not to trade. If you feel like you do not understand the market at a particular point, simply choose not to trade. Flat is a position. Do not waste your bullets on rubbish trades. Only enter a trade when you have carefully considered it from all angles and feel good about the risk. This will make it far easier to hold onto the trade if it moves against you at any point. You actually believe in it. Equally, you need to set monthly limits. A standard limit might be a 10% account balance stop per month. At that point you close all your positions immediately and stop trading till next month. Be strict with yourself and walk away Let’s assume you started the year with $100k and made 5% in January so enter Feb with $105k balance. Your stop is therefore 10% of $105k or $10.5k . If your account balance dips to $94.5k ($105k-$10.5k) then you stop yourself out and don’t resume trading till March the first. Having monthly calendar breaks is nice for another reason. Say you made a load of money in January. You don’t want to start February feeling you are up 5% or it is too tempting to avoid trading all month and protect the existing win. Each month and each year should feel like a clean slate and an independent period. Everyone has trading slumps. It is perfectly normal. It will definitely happen to you at some stage. The trick is to take a break and refocus. Conserve your capital by not trading a lot whilst you are on a losing streak. This period will be much harder for you emotionally and you’ll end up making suboptimal decisions. An enforced break will help you see the bigger picture. Put in place a process before you start trading and then it’ll be easy to follow and will feel much less emotional. Remember: the market doesn’t care if you win or lose, it is nothing personal. When your head has cooled and you feel calm you return the next month and begin the task of building back your account balance.
That's a wrap on risk management
Thanks for taking time to read this three-part chapter on risk management. I hope you enjoyed it. Do comment in the replies if you have any questions or feedback. Remember: the most important part of trading is not making money. It is not losing money. Always start with that principle. I hope these three notes have provided some food for thought on how you might approach risk management and are of practical use to you when trading. Avoiding mistakes is not a sexy tagline but it is an effective and reliable way to improve results. Next up I will be writing about an exciting topic I think many traders should look at rather differently: news trading. Please follow on here to receive notifications and the broad outline is below. News Trading Part I
Why use the economic calendar
Reading the economic calendar
Knowing what's priced in
First order thinking vs second order thinking
News Trading Part II
Preparing for quantitative and qualitative releases
Data surprise index
Using recent events to predict future reactions
Buy the rumour, sell the fact
The mysterious 'position trim' effect
Some key FX releases
*** Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
You have a chart in front of you, a buy and sell button respectively, this basically gives you 50% of probability that if you open a buy or sell at any time your action will end up making money after sometime. "Sometime" adds new variables to the game and makes it more complicated: is knowing the direction for sometime, the market needs to move to increase profit or increase loss. You then go into the volatility reports for lets say EURUSD, and you see that during London session and New York session, it's the time where price statistically moves more, so there is where you want to be if you want to day trade (open and close trades in the same day), this can be also noticed if you zoom out for example M5 of almost any pairs, volume will be bigger in this two sessions. Ok so you have statistics of at what times it may move big, you also know that it may not move or it may range the whole day, but definitely there is going to be big moves. If you analyse the past, with only for example a 30 MA, you will see the 50/50. What else do you need? To be in most of the times you are humanly able following the trend, if price is averaging over any average you want and see useful to add, why would you bet that is not going to average oveunder it for some more time? Add a 1000 MA, what if you waited for each cross and traded it trend following? Here then comes a "must": money management = risk = stay in the game for long = you can lose multiple times and long term it's hard that you even lose 10% of your account. Start with the minimum risk, demo in 0.01. Why? If you can consistently win with 0.01 it's just a matter of optimizing the statistics your demo trading over time has thrown, money will come, lots of it, the amount your confidence as a trader can bear and ultimately because trading is so big and involves almost all of the aspects of your life and personality, your confidence as a human being can bear. But this is skipping to psychology. So, volatility, an average of some x periods to get the trend (not of the market but of the x periods in relation to the market and time, x is important, x can't be 2000 in M5), money management and time to play. What else? When will you close the trades? There are multiple ways each one with pros and cons, price crossing the average (too slow sometimes), price hitting fibos (gotta have a method for plotting fibos the same time each time, check the "Do it yourself" section, 61.8 a.k.a 0.618 and 61.8, god made numbers), being this last one the one I like. Price plays with these levels, nothing magical about it, is just "nature", a forgotten and violated term these days IMHO. There it is, when to open with probability, when to close methodically, how to play your money so you last as long as you don't fail too much repeatedly. This results after studying Ralph Elliot's, W Gann's, Wykcoff's, Pesavento's, Gartley's, Carney's and some others WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET. They all found structure in price actions over time, they all understood natural patterns that occur, they all sat in front of some charts, used or created tools for handling those charts, in the end everything is so simple and easy that our minds, past, maybe present, the t.v, Instagram won't lets us succeed. Why? Your mind is your biggest enemy of what you want to do in life. How? Your past in someway defines you, defines what you are looking for in life. Psychology, establishment and relativity. Mark Douglas introduced me (in his videos) to a new way of thinking towards trading. He speaks about beliefs, how they drives us in each decision we make each day from as simple as making coffee, having a bath, dressing nice or dressing in the first place. Beliefs are what makes your past define you today and tomorrow if you keep believing them. A wrong belief of yourself, a wrong belief of the world outside your eyes, a wrong belief of the market (you keep trusting other people about the market, in the end after loosing you trust no one), this leads to what lot's of gurus outside the financial world, will say: trust in yourself. Forex gurus tell you to trust them, pay them so they'll unveil the secrets. No money can change your wrong mindset, that feeling in your chest each time you think about possibilities with Forex (euphoria, dangerous as f not only in forex), that belief that some magical indicator will come, some hidden code of some pro advanced indi if you are more realist, some guy with the answer. You are very alone in this world my friend, money will tear countries apart, cities apart, families apart. People will sell their face for some money, their name, in the end corrupt politicians that don't get caught will enjoy their feasts everyday, with their innocent childs, who see their daddy as their hero, this is not a fair world, what's fair in the first place? A human creation so we can live together in peace, but that's not reality we all know. We are evoluted chimps, we still feel what the cheetah feel's in front of his prey, we share 90% of DNA with most of mammals, as intelligent as we like to think we are, we can't delete our nature, our hunger, our fear, our needs, our instinct (the one rushes adrenaline when you know you are losing too much), because deep inside we all know whats right or wrong, the difference between people is whether you hear that voice, or you shut it with a nicer version. 90% of people in forex (not real statistics, the real number varies from broker hmmm brokers another shady topic), prefers the nice version long term, which results not profitable basically. It's your version (you + all gurus you've seen) not the version the market shows and the deep-you tries to alert. I headed far from an important topic: gurus telling to trust them, a killer market killing you, lots of misinformation around the WWW and you not believing in yourself. What else do you have to face the markets? You are in a triangle: broker (not so hard to get a nice one), market and yourself. Everything else is a lie until the person who is in any way selling you stuff, shows you his profitable record of more than 6 months in any financial instrument, that you look at yourself in the mirror and you can say I trust him, not I want to trust him (even if it's some of each, but hey everything involves risk). LOOK AT THE CHARTS. Want to have "fast money" (intraday), look M1 to M30, even H1 for a bird's view, optimize your profitable and consistent demo results to that market; want to look charts once a day, trade D1, I'd say you don't even have to look at something bigger as it is big enough and you can go to H4 or H1 for finesse entries (can become a vicious circle, how much finesse is finesse?). It's all about trust, confidence and a good plan. Psychology of yourself is so vast, and so unique to each person that I would dare to say that if you are looking for the answer outside of you, you better befriend a trader who is today making money and pray that he literally gifts you his confidence (not his knowledge even if it can help, hi will be sharing his confidence). Your social mind will spawn the hype, the euphoria, you will succeed for a while, market will kill you sooner or later, you will help the market to kill your account. Why? Because your confidence wasn't real, it may be that that day, that week the market moved nicely, or you felt strong and super. How many gurus go live and say "hey today, as a human being, I don't feel great, I would not trade today?" none. They say market is not right ATM, cherry picking, they totally exploit that you can't go inside their screens and really know them, here comes the version you want to believe, you will tell yourself anything, you will tell anyone anything. Here to finish, I'll say that consistency in anything in life starts from yourself. If you can't be consistent everyday with yourself for a long period of time, you will find temporary jobs, temporary stuff, you will keep jumping from gurus, from strategies, you will create better versions on your head, just imagine what version a guru must have created to go and sell forex related stuff instead of searching for how to kill the markets, he may be doing both, in the end none of that will give you anything, you will end up being the stair to the gurus goals. Try to comprehend how human we are, how arrogant we are from a farmers perspective, how or evolution results in our minds plays us tricks, to think the government is real, to think there's order, justice, to think that we can achieve huge things with the help of YouTube videos or paying another human being, the market is flow, manipulation is real (why call it manipulation when you would be doing the same in their shoes(big boys)) is part of the nature of anything you plot with Y and X axis (look for a graph of population changes, harmonics, double bottoms, double tops, in a population changes graph? how can that be?), it may be a cliche but is aaaaaaall an illusion guys, the truth is not good business for the other side of the trades. See you on the other side. "I'll be a big noise with all the big boys"
[educational] Technical analysis, patterns, and charts analysis for the day trader
Chart patterns form a key part of day trading. Candlestick and other charts produce frequent signals that cut through price action “noise”. The best patterns will be those that can form the backbone of a profitable day trading strategy, whether trading stocks, cryptocurrency of forex pairs. Every day you have to choose between hundreds of trading opportunities. This is a result of a wide range of factors influencing the market. Day trading patterns enable you to decipher the multitude of options and motivations – from hope of gain and fear of loss, to short-covering, stop-loss triggers, hedging, tax consequences and plenty more. Candlestick patterns help by painting a clear picture, and flagging up trading signals and signs of future price movements. Whilst it’s said you’ll need to use technical analysis to succeed day trading with candlestick and other patterns, it’s important to note utilizing them to your advantage is more of an art form than a rigid science. You have to learn the power of chart patterns and the theory that governs them in order to identify the best patterns to supplement your trading style and strategies.
Use In Day Trading
Used correctly trading patterns can add a powerful tool to your arsenal. This is because history has a habit of repeating itself and the financial markets are no exception. This repetition can help you identify opportunities and anticipate potential pitfalls. RSI, volume, plus support and resistance levels all aide your technical analysis when you’re trading. But crypto chart patterns play a crucial role in identifying breakouts and trend reversals. Mastering the art of reading these patterns will help you make smarter trades and bolster your profits, as highlighted in the highly regarded, ‘stock patterns for day trading’, by Barry Rudd.
Breakouts & Reversals
In the patterns and charts below you’ll see two recurring themes, breakouts and reversals.
Breakout – A breakout is simply when the price clears a specified critical level on your chart. This level could by any number of things, from a Fibonacci level, to support, resistance or trend lines.
Reversal – A reversal is simply a change in direction of a price trend. That change could be either positive or negative against the prevailing trend. You may also hear it called a ‘rally’, ‘correction’, or ‘trend reversal’.
Candlestick charts are a technical tool at your disposal. They consolidate data within given time frames into single bars. Not only are the patterns relatively straightforward to interpret, but trading with candle patterns can help you attain that competitive edge over the rest of the market. They first originated in the 18th century where they were used by Japanese rice traders. Since Steve Nison introduced them to the West with his 1991 book ‘Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques’, their popularity has surged. Below is a break down of three of the most popular candlestick patterns used for day trading.
Shooting Star Candlestick
This is often one of the first you see when you open a chart with candlestick patterns. This bearish reversal candlestick suggests a peak. It is precisely the opposite of a hammer candle. It won’t form until at least three subsequent green candles have materialized. This will indicate an increase in price and demand. Usually, buyers lose their cool and clamber for the price to increasing highs before they realize they’ve overpaid. The upper shadow is usually twice the size of the body. This tells you the last frantic buyers have entered trading just as those that have turned a profit have off-loaded their positions. Short-sellers then usually force the price down to the close of the candle either near or below the open. This traps the late arrivals who pushed the price high. Panic often kicks in at this point as those late arrivals swiftly exit their positions. https://preview.redd.it/gf5dwjhbrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=437ff856bfd6ebc95da34528462ba224d964f01f
One of the most popular candlestick patterns for trading forex is the doji candlestick (doji signifies indecision). This reversal pattern is either bearish or bullish depending on the previous candles. It will have nearly, or the same open and closing price with long shadows. It may look like a cross, but it can have an extremely small body. You will often get an indicator as to which way the reversal will head from the previous candles. If you see previous candles are bullish, you can anticipate the next one near the underneath of the body low will trigger a short/sell signal when the doji lows break. You’ll then see trail stops above the doji highs. Alternatively, if the previous candles are bearish then the doji will probably form a bullish reversal. Above the candlestick high, long triggers usually form with a trail stop directly under the doji low. These candlestick patterns could be used for intraday trading with forex, stocks, cryptocurrencies and any number of other assets. But using candlestick patterns for trading interpretations requires experience, so practice on a demo account before you put real money on the line. https://preview.redd.it/4yo650lcrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2aa3cdeef23e44e1e3e3047bbe2604fce0a4768
This is a bullish reversal candlestick. You can use this candlestick to establish capitulation bottoms. These are then normally followed by a price bump, allowing you to enter a long position. The hammer candlestick forms at the end of a downtrend and suggests a near-term price bottom. The lower shadow is made by a new low in the downtrend pattern that then closes back near the open. The tail (lower shadow), must be a minimum of twice the size of the actual body. The tails are those that stopped out as shorts started to cover their positions and those looking for a bargain decided to feast. Volume can also help hammer home the candle. To be certain it is a hammer candle, check where the next candle closes. It must close above the hammer candle low. Trading with Japanese candlestick patterns has become increasingly popular in recent decades, as a result of the easy to glean and detailed information they provide. This makes them ideal for charts for beginners to get familiar with. https://preview.redd.it/7snzz8qdrdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=f83ff82f0980dd30c33bc6886ae7e7ed3a98b72f
More Popular Day Trading Patterns
Using Price Action
Many strategies using simple price action patterns are mistakenly thought to be too basic to yield significant profits. Yet price action strategies are often straightforward to employ and effective, making them ideal for both beginners and experienced traders. Put simply, price action is how the price is likely to respond at certain levels of resistance or support. Using price action patterns from pdfs and charts will help you identify both swings and trendlines. Whether you’re day trading stocks or forex or crypto with price patterns, these easy to follow strategies can be applied across the board.
This empty zone tells you that the price action isn’t headed anywhere. There is no clear up or down trend, the market is at a standoff. If you want big profits, avoid the dead zone completely. No indicator will help you makes thousands of pips here.
The Red Zone
This is where things start to get a little interesting. Once you’re in the red zone the end goal is in sight, and that one hundred pip winner within reach. For example, if the price hits the red zone and continues to the upside, you might want to make a buy trade. It could be giving you higher highs and an indication that it will become an uptrend. This will be likely when the sellers take hold. If the price hits the red zone and continues to the downside, a sell trade may be on the cards. You’d have new lower lows and a suggestion that it will become a downtrend.
The End Zone
This is where the magic happens. With this strategy, you want to consistently get from the red zone to the end zone. Draw rectangles on your charts like the ones found in the example. Then only trade the zones. If you draw the red zones anywhere from 10-20 pips wide, you’ll have room for the price action to do its usual retracement before heading to the downside or upside.
Put simply, less retracement is proof the primary trend is robust and probably going to continue. Forget about coughing up on the numerous Fibonacci retracement levels. The main thing to remember is that you want the retracement to be less than 38.2%. This means even when today’s asset tests the previous swing, you’ll have a greater chance that the breakout will either hold or continue towards the direction of the primary trend. https://preview.redd.it/ey997b2irdh31.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=c938aac51e3b3bbf1f45a11c46f4ae3dfd1b6dd4 Trading with price patterns to hand enables you to try any of these strategies. Find the one that fits in with your individual trading style. Remember, you’ll often find the best trading chart patterns aren’t overly complex, instead they paint a clear picture using minimal indicators, reducing the likelihood of mistakes and distraction.
Consider Time Frames
When you start trading with your short term price patterns pdf to hand, it’s essential you also consider time frames in your calculations. In your market, you’ll find a number of time frames simultaneously co-existing. This means you can find conflicting trends within the particular asset your trading. Your stock could be in a primary downtrend whilst also being in an intermediate short-term uptrend. Many traders make the mistake of focusing on a specific time frame and ignoring the underlying influential primary trend. Usually, the longer the time frame the more reliable the signals. When you reduce your time frames you’ll be distracted by false moves and noise. Many traders download examples of short-term price patterns but overlook the underlying primary trend, do not make this mistake. You should trade-off 15-minute charts, but utilize 60-minute charts to define the primary trend and 5-minute charts to establish the short-term trend.
Our understanding of chart patterns has come along way since the initial 1932 work of Richard Schabacker in ‘Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits’. Schabacker asserted then, ‘any general stock chart is a combination of countless different patterns and its accurate analysis depends upon constant study, long experience and knowledge of all the fine points, both technical and fundamental…’ So whilst there is an abundance of patterns out there, remember accurate analysis and sustained practice is required to fully reap their benefits. The source : https://www.daytrading.com/patterns
Some of the NEX team went through the questions asked a couple of days ago, but due to the answers being posted sporadically, i thought it might be better collating answers and reposting for visibility! I highly recommend reading through if you are interested in NEX! NEX team marked as U = u/Unignorant, C = u/Canesin, L = u/Localalhost_coz Original post here Q: What is the NEX marketing plan to grow in terms of a customer base ? And how far is the team away from a finished product? During most of the interviews I noticed the team reference comparison to Binance, how does the interface match binance in a decentralized environment? (u/sheldonbraganza) (U)We will have a complete product out on TestNet in Q2, and a fully working cross-chain exchange on the NEO and Ethereum networks in Q3. NEX is marketing to two primary groups of users: (1) Mainstream users who want an easier experience buying altcoins with cryptocurrency. Through our network of banking partners, we will make it easy for anyone in the world to buy tokens on NEO, ETH (and eventually other chains) using their national currencies. (2) Bots and traders: we aim to have best-in-class trading APIs for high performance, computational trading. We will have better and faster APIs than today's centralized exchanges, with the added benefit of these systems running on decentralized networks The point of our off-chain matching engine tech is to enable the same (or better!) usability as an exchange like Binance, while keeping around the decentralized model. The off-chain engine makes trading just as performant as today's centralized exchanges, and makes it much easier to support the kind of cross-chain trading functionality that has long been a pipe dream for decentralized exchanges. We are very much inspired by other exchanges like Coinbase in this regard, and we will be the first DEX to achieve this. (C) Just to remember that NEX is also going after costumers that usually are not considered by other exchanges with its features to facilitate peer to peer payments requests, invoicing and tipping/gifts. Q:Can you elaborate on NEX staking? The whitepaper was fuzzy about it and had terms like "staking percentage". (u/r3dh4r7) (U) The NEX staking rate will be from 25-75%. Committing to stake for one day gives a rate of 25%, which increases linearly to a rate of 75% if you are willing to stake for 2 years By staking rate, we mean the percentage of revenue you will get from NEX fee collection proportional to the tokens you hold. For example, if you hold 10% of all NEX tokens and are staking at a rate of 75%, then you will receive .10 * .75 = 7.5% of all fee revenue generated by NEX over that period. We will confirm these details in an updated white paper release coming out today or tomorrow. ~ If you commit for two years, the first year will still be at 75%. Q:How soon do you introduce Fiat pairs? (u/coinonymous1) (U) Our network of banking partners will begin to go live in Q2. That means users will be able to enter the ecosystem with national currencies through the NEX extension and web-based exchange interface. (C) To clarify, this are not direct trading pairs on the exchange itself (i.e. JPY/NEX) but a easy method to on ramp and cashout using the tools. Users will be able to acquire NEO and GAS with fiat and any other tokens traded at NEX will be using the exchange itself. Q: The chrome extension is great but why should I still rely on desktop to access NEX interface ? When can we expect Iphone/ Android App? (u/cryptobuddy_1712) (U) We are planning native android/iOS apps. Depending on how fast we can grow, they may be out by Q3. (C) Mobile presence is a complex topic, depending of how much of the full experience you want to provide - that will depend on the support shown by 3rd party wallets, if they adopt NEX APIs. Q: Will you guys be supporting Ledger integration any time soon? Nex chrome add-on, Nex exchange integration...?! Plans to list the Nex token on other exchanges before the release of your own? What are the plans to continue supporting Neon wallet now that Nex came out with their extension for chrome? Will Nex exchange introduce fiat deposits/withdrawals? (u/mihai_ss) (U) Yes, ledger is on the roadmap. We cannot comment on other exchange listings right now. We love and will continue to support Neon wallet (you are speaking to its creator :) as a great desktop wallet and complementary partner to our extension. NEX will support national currencies in/out of the exchange through our network of banking partners. (C) Not only ledger but hardware wallets in general. Ledger is priority currently given that it is quite popular in NEO. We have to have in mind that NEX is trying to do a lot of different things to make usage easier to new users (that probably don't have a ledger!), there is currently about 96k users of it (more than this sub) so we will focus on fixing the corner cases and issues that appears frequently with such large user base first. Q:More and more people are using mobile apps for trading. Don't you think nex should also have its own iOS and Android app. Are the API being developed future proof to integrate with mobile apps for trading and seeing candle charts. (u/Cryptobanku) (U) We agree with the power for mobile, and future proofing the API is 100% on our mind. Longer term, we are planning native iOS/android apps. Q:So NEX is a security right? What does that mean exactly? The Token only will be available on the neon exchange? In order to get the exchange dividends are we gonna be forced to put our tokens on stake mode? If so, once we put our tokens on stake mode does that mean we are not gonna be able to move them or sell them for a specific period of time? (u/sersimovi) (U) NEX is a registered European security. It will be traded on NEX exchange, but that is not the only place it will be traded (I cannot say more than that right now). Being a registered security is amazing for investors. It means that all of the sketchy things that so often happen with cryprocurrencies/tokens (things like market manipulation or insider trading) are made explicitly illegal. It also means that we, as a company, go through an extensive audit. For that, we have partnered with the top tier accounting firm Ernst and Young. The staking model means that you commit to staking your NEX for a certain amount of time to receive a share of fee revenue. The minimum amount of time you can stake NEX is one day. The maximum time you can stake is two years. While staked, you cannot move or sell the NEX tokens. (C) All that plus the investor don't need to fear it will crash because someone classified it as a security in the future. Q:When will the official sale date be announced and when will the official tokens per neo be determined? (u/rborsb9) (L) We are still working with our legal partners to determine a final sale date, but it will be sometime at the end of April. The tokens per Neo/Gas will be determined from the 10 day moving average of the price before the sale begins. Q:What do you think sets NEX apart from the countless other DEXs that are starting up right now? Why should people invest in NEX vs Switcheo/Etherdelta/Binance(once they release)? (U) NEX will be the first usable, performant, and cross-chain DEX. Out of all the exchanges you mentioned, none of them are using an off-chain matching engine, which quite simply means none of them can do what we are doing. In addition to that, NEX has by far the most generous revenue share model of any exchange you have mentioned. This is because we are embracing being a security (not hiding behind some questionably legal utility token). The people who invest in us will be treated very well by this model. As for competitors: Switcheo unfortunately doesn't work. There is no volume, and the SC is broken (or at least didn't work when I tried it; the transaction failed and it stole the small amount of GAS I tried to trade). Etherdelta has higher volume but still ridiculously low overall. And again, just try to use Etherdelta... it is a usability disaster. There is really no comparison here. Binance might do something interesting, if they decide to do anything. But we have better technical talent than Binance, so I am not too worried. Q:What % volume neon exchange will support compared with top centralized exchanges? Thanks big neo fan! (u/myfriendbaubau) (U) We will support just as much volume as today's centralized exchanges. Q: Will NEX have a stable coin? (u/masi252) (U) We have looked into various implementations and ideas surrounding stable coins and have determined that it is not something we are planning on doing in the near future. Cont: What about when Alchemint releases? (u/Bing0to) (C) We wanted to do a fundamental strong stable coin that was capital efficient. Unfortunately there is some pre-requisites for that to be possible that currently is lacking in crypto markets. We will continue to monitor how this space evolves and our ideas are stored waiting the future when they can be applied. Q:Can we expect the erc20 token trading earlier than q3? (u/markerizza) (U) Q3 is the current roadmap projection. It is possible it will happen earlier depending on our growth. Q: Will the token sale be via smart contract, so that we recieve our tokens right away? (u/Ebrii) (U) Yes Q: will you guys have an official subreddit and telegram anytime soon? (u/markerizza) (U) No, we dislike the idea of project oriented telegrams. There are too many opportunities for scammers. We may have a subreddit in the future, but not anytime soon. Q: What is the plan to get liquidity on the platform? It seems to be the biggest problem with current DEXs. (u/Mutedtommy) (U) We have strategic partnerships for this. We are also working with other partners to develop some nice APIs for high performance trading. Q: On the site you say that the ORIGINAL winners can participate in the second round (9000$) options, do you mean only the first round lottery winners or the first and second round winners combined? (u/FrancoisFrancis) (U) Any lottery winners (whether first or second draw) have the opportunity to participate in both rounds 1 and 2. Please see this medium post for clarification: https://medium.com/neon-exchange/nex-extension-and-lottery-q-a-667e56f58e4a Q: If you chose to participate in round 2 from the KYC process, does that mean you are guaranteed a spot? The medium article seems to indicate there will be an additional lottery from those who selected that option to see who from round one is eligible for round 2. (u/DwyerMatt) No one is guaranteed a spot in round 2. It is even possible (though extremely unlikely) that all NEX is sold out in round one. This would happen if everyone who is selected goes through KYC and participates at 100%. (U) Q: Will NEX tokens only be tradeable on NEX or is there a chance of it being listed on other exchanges like Binance? (u/Frank_Sinatra88) (U) See an answer above. Not just NEX, but I can't say more than that right now. Q: How do you see NEO compare to other coins on its network ? Like another coin could be valued more than NEO itself ? And will NEX always be bound to NEO? (u/BN_Boi) (U) It is unlikely but possible that a NEP5 token could eventually achieve a higher marketcap than NEO itself. NEX is not bound to NEO much at all. Our token will live as a NEP5 on NEO, and that is how users will receive staking rewards, but we will support trading very early on Ethereum as well. (C) Google runs atop of other companies infrastructure (telecom providers), but it is valued more than all of them. The same thing can (and probably will) happen in token land, it will just take a while - when infrastructure becomes less important than applications and platforms atop of it. Like with the internet. NEX behind the scenes (as the DEX is cross-chain from start) is using NEO capabilities, but the future of both is broad and uncertain. As a long term strategy the NEX company will do what it can to improve its underling technology and remove risk from its business. Q: Is there a vesting period for the half of available NEX tokens that will not be sold during the ICO? (u/ETHERjimbo) (U) The founder and employee tokens (25%) will vest over two years. Q: Whitepaper uses an example $100m in the fee distribution calculation. If NEX is truly a security token and the whitepaper is your prospectus then you must provide further data on fwd looking statements. The NEX token gives the right to fee distribution. Given this you must provide assumption based forecasts on expedited fees over the next 3 years. This will support price discovery. How can the market properly price the token when fee expectations are unknown.(u/nsheahan82) (C) Fee structure is defined on whitepaper and version v1.1 contains a example section as stated. Version v2.0 (to be released very soon) contains the actual staking portion (25% to 75% linear over two years growth on staking). Guess work on the volume would in reality be very indigenous, look at volume behavior market wise (https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#charts) so much variation. Following the 3 years trend we could say trading volume will be bigger than the world economy, clearly that is not happening. Q: Would NEX Staking be a 50% or 75% as stated on the whitepaper? (u/GMDaddy) (C)See answer above, it starts at 25% and goes up to 75%. The increase is linear and maximum period is 2 years. Cont: By linear, you mean like as an option where the user has the choice on picking whether to stake it from 25% up into 75%? (C)No, when you start staking it starts at 25% and by linear I mean it increases at a constant rate of about 2.08% per month for two years until it reach 75%. (U)To clarify fabio's comment: yes, you can choose a fixed rate of 75% by committing to stake for two years. Q: A massive attraction to NEX is the prospect of decentralised banking. What makes decentralised banking better than traditional banking? (u/kabelofthe3rd) (C)Our goal is to facilitate crypto trading at large, this touches from usage of applications to investing passing by funds management and invoicing solutions. What this enables is a digital cashless economy, we call it the smart economy. In the smart economy users are in control of their funds using this advanced technological tools to perform the tasks above and current banking solutions are no longer needed.
Q: Once NEX is rolled out, what will be the easiest way for US residents to buy some stake? I'm aware it's going to be issued as a security so I'm thinking the NEX token will only be tradable on NEX itself because most non decentralized exchanges will not list security's or tokens that don't pass the Howet Test. Is this correct?(u/Cozmo525)
(C)You are correct, for US persons you will need to wait other licensed exchanges list NEX or we acquire the proper licenses to allow US people to trade securities. Whatever happens first =) Q: Can I stake only NEX or also other Token f.e. NEO? (u/masi252) (C) NEO doesn't need to be staked, you already can claim GAS on NEX extension. Q: How do you plan to compete with Switcheo when they have first movers advantage and will be live for months before your platform will be? (u/toneeey1) (C)We plan to compete with anyone in our market by providing better products. Q: Will TNC be utilized? (u/molly1nora) (C)That is not planned, NEX has it own custom scaling solutions already in development. Q: Do you see exchanges not listing NEX, due to the fact that you guys are direct competition? (u/detnah) (C)That is a tricky question, I believe competition will not be with every exchange - in special centralized ones, as CEX they will more focused in national markets and we are going after broad chain level trade. Q: Is there a chance in the future you will also introduce other coins to the exchange sich as ERC-20 tokens etc? If so you'd blow all competition out the water. (u/Frank_Sinatra88) (C)Yes, ERC-20 tokens will be supported by Q3 together with NEP-5. Q: Will NEX APIs support mobile Dapps or Wallets? (u/johndon96) (C)Both, APIs are in general not target to a specific application, is up to the developers to use it in their products. Q: What are the team's plans to make NEX the best decentralized exchange and one of the best projects ever released? (u/its_me_TAG) (C)We will be working close to our costumers, never afraid of breaking status quo and never ending improvements. NEX will never be done. Q: Are there any plans to open up some Nex-Stores in several spots around the Globe? (u/michaeluebelhart) (C)No, but will have a online swag store :D Q: Is it possible that in the long future to have forex pairs listed on NEX? (u/BR8889) (C)In a future where fiat has token representations or stable coins are indeed stable. Q: When will we see the updated Whitepaper? (I know for example that you plan to integrate ERC20 tokens earlier than mentioned in the original Whitepaper) (u/mambor) (C) Target is this weekend. We could delay if redacting detects things that should be changed/improved. Q: What is your go-to-market strategy? (u/Dux_AMS) (C) We already have >100k users. ;)
"Satoshi Nakamoto" the mysterious creator of Bitcoin is no other than the CIA
Bitcoin has surged to all time highs, Who created Bitcoin, and why? The creator of Bitcoin is officially a name, “Satoshi Nakamoto” – very few people believe that it was a single male from Japan. In the early days of Bitcoin development this name is associated with original key-creation and communications on message boards, and then the project was officially handed over to others at which point this Satoshi character never appeared again (Although from time to time someone will come forward saying they are the real Satoshi Nakamoto, and then have their posts deleted). Bitcoin could very well be the ‘one world currency’ that conspiracy theorists have been talking about for some time. It’s a kill five birds with one stone solution – not only is Bitcoin an ideal one world currency, it allows law enforcement a perfect record of all transactions on the network. It states very clearly on bitcoin.org (the official site) in big letters “Bitcoin is not anonymous” : Some effort is required to protect your privacy with Bitcoin. All Bitcoin transactions are stored publicly and permanently on the network, which means anyone can see the balance and transactions of any Bitcoin address. However, the identity of the user behind an address remains unknown until information is revealed during a purchase or in other circumstances. This is one reason why Bitcoin addresses should only be used once. Another advantage of Bitcoin is the problem of Quantitative Easing – the Fed (and thus, nearly all central banks in the world) have painted themselves in a corner, metaphorically speaking. QE ‘solved’ the credit crisis, but QE itself does not have a solution. Currently all currencies are in a race to zero – competing with who can print more money faster. Central Bankers who are in systemic analysis, their economic advisors, know this. They know that the Fiat money system is doomed, all what you can read online is true (just sensationalized) – it’s a debt based system based on nothing. That system was created, originally in the early 1900’s and refined during Breton Woods followed by the Nixon shock (This is all explained well in Splitting Pennies). In the early 1900’s – there was no internet! It is a very archaic system that needs to be replaced, by something modern, electronic, based on encryption. Bitcoin! It’s a currency based on ‘bits’ – but most importantly, Bitcoin is not the ‘one world currency’ per se, but laying the framework for larger cryptocurrency projects. In the case of central banks, who control the global monetary system, that would manifest in ‘Settlement Coin’ : Two resources available almost exclusively to central banks could soon be opened up to additional users as a result of a new digital currency project designed by a little-known startup and Swiss bank UBS. One of those resources is the real-time gross settlement (RTGS) system used by central banks (it’s typically reserved for high-value transactions that need to be settled instantly), and the other is central bank-issued cash. Using the Utility Settlement Coin (USC) unveiled today, the five-member consortium that has sprung up around the project aims to help central banks open-up access to these tools to more customers. If successful, USC has the potential to create entirely new business models built on instant settling and easy cash transfers. In interview, Robert Sams, founder of London-based Clearmatics, said his firm initially worked with UBS to build the network, and that BNY Mellon, Deutsche Bank, ICAP and Santander are only just the first of many future members. the NSA/CIA often works for big corporate clients, just as it has become a cliche that the Iraq war was about big oil, the lesser known hand in global politics is the banking sector. In other words, Bitcoin may have very well been ‘suggested’ or ‘sponsored’ by a banker, group of banks, or financial services firm. But the NSA (as we surmise) was the company that got the job done. And probably, if it was in fact ‘suggested’ or ‘sponsored’ by a private bank, they would have been waiting in the wings to develop their own Bitcoin related systems or as in the above “Settlement Coin.” So the NSA made Bitcoin – so what? The FX markets currently represent the exchange between ‘major’ and ‘minor’ currencies. In the future, why not too they will include ‘cryptocurrencies’ – we’re already seeing the BTC/EUR pair popup on obscure brokers. When BTC/USD and BTC/EUR are available at major FX banks and brokers, we can say – from a global FX perspective, that Bitcoin has ‘arrived.’ Many of us remember the days when the synthetic “Euro” currency was a new artificial creation that was being adopted, although the Euro project is thousands of degrees larger than the Bitcoin project. But unlike the Euro, Bitcoin is being adopted at a near exponential rate by demand (Many merchants resisted the switch to Euros claiming it was eating into their profit margins and they were right!). And to answer the question as to why Elite E Services is not actively involved in Bitcoin the answer is that previously, you can’t trade Bitcoin. Now we’re starting to see obscure brokers offering BTC/EUR but the liquidity is sparse and spreads are wacky – that will all change. When we can trade BTC/USD just like EUUSD you can bet that EES and a host of other algorithmic FX traders will be all over it! It will be an interesting trade for sure, especially with all the volatility, the cross ‘pairs’ – and new cryptocurrencies. For the record, for brokers- there’s not much difference adding a new symbol (currency pair) in MT4 they just need liquidity, which has been difficult to find. So there’s really nothing revolutionary about Bitcoin, it’s just a logical use of technology in finance considering a plethora of problems faced by any central bank who creates currency. And there are some interesting caveats to Bitcoin as compared to major currencies; Bitcoin is a closed system (there are finite Bitcoin) – this alone could make such currencies ‘anti-inflationary’ and at the least, hold their value (the value of the USD continues to deteriorate slowly over time as new M3 introduced into the system.) But we need to pay Here’s some interesting theories about who or whom is Satoshi: A corporate conglomerate Some researchers proposed that the name ‘Satoshi Nakamoto’ was derived from a combination of tech companies consisting of Samsung, Toshiba, Nakayama, and Motorola. The notion that the name was a pseudonym is clearly true and it is doubtful they reside in Japan given the numerous forum posts with a distinctly English dialect. Craig Steven Wright This Australian entrepreneur claims to be the Bitcoin creator and provided proof. But soon after, his offices were raided by the tax authorities on ‘an unrelated matter’ Soon after these stories were published, authorities in Australia raided the home of Mr Wright. The Australian Taxation Office said the raid was linked to a long-running investigation into tax payments rather than Bitcoin. Questioned about this raid, Mr Wright said he was cooperating fully with the ATO. “We have lawyers negotiating with them over how much I have to pay,” he said. Other potential creators Nick Szabo, and many others, have been suggested as potential Satoshi – but all have denied it: The New Yorker published a piece pointing at two possible Satoshis, one of whom seemed particularly plausible: a cryptography graduate student from Trinity College, Dublin, who had gone on to work in currency-trading software for a bank and published a paper on peer-to-peer technology. The other was a Research Fellow at the Oxford Internet Institute, Vili Lehdonvirta. Both made denials. Fast Company highlighted an encryption patent application filed by three researchers – Charles Bry, Neal King and Vladimir Oksman – and a circumstantial link involving textual analysis of it and the Satoshi paper which found the phrase “…computationally impractical to reverse” in both. Again, it was flatly denied. THE WINNER: It was the NSA The NSA has the capability, the motive, and the operational capacity – they have teams of cryptographers, the biggest fastest supercomputers in the world, and they see the need. Whether instructed by their friends at the Fed, in cooperation with their owners (i.e. Illuminati banking families), or as part of a DARPA project – is not clear and will never be known (unless a whistleblower comes forward). In fact, the NSA employs some of the best mathematicians and cryptographers in the world. Few know about their work because it’s a secret, and this isn’t the kind of job you leave to start your own cryptography company. But the real smoking Gun, aside from the huge amount of circumstantial evidence and lack of a credible alternative, is the 1996 paper authored by NSA “HOW TO MAKE A MINT: THE CRYPTOGRAPHY OF ANONYMOUS ELECTRONIC CASH” The NSA was one of the first organizations to describe a Bitcoin-like system. About twelve years before Satoshi Nakamotopublished his legendary white paper to the Metzdowd.com cryptography mailing list, a group of NSA information security researchers published a paper entitled How to Make a Mint: the Cryptography of Anonymous Electronic Cash in two prominent places, the first being an MIT mailing list and the second being much more prominent, The American Law Review The paper outlines a system very much like Bitcoin in which secure financial transactions are possible through the use of a decentralized network the researchers refer informally to as a Bank. They list four things as indispensable in their proposed network: privacy, user identification (protection against impersonation), message integrity (protection against tampering/substitution of transaction information – that is, protection against double-spending), and nonrepudiation (protection against later denial of a transaction – a blockchain!). It is evident that SHA-256, the algorithm Satoshi used to secure Bitcoin, was not available because it came about in 2001. However, SHA-1 would have been available to them, having been published in 1993. Why would the NSA want to do this? One simple reason: Control. As we explain in Splitting Pennies – Understanding Forex – the primary means the US dominates the world is through economic policy, although backed by bombs. And the critical support of the US Dollar is primarily, the military. The connection between the military and the US Dollar system is intertwined inextricably. There are thousands of great examples only one of them being how Iraq switched to the Euro right before the Army’s invasion. In October 2000 Iraq insisted on dumping the US dollar – ‘the currency of the enemy’ – for the more multilateral euro. The changeover was announced on almost exactly the same day that the euro reached its lowest ebb, buying just $0.82, and the G7 Finance Ministers were forced to bail out the currency. On Friday the euro had reached $1.08, up 30 per cent from that time. Almost all of Iraq’s oil exports under the United Nations oil-for-food programme have been paid in euros since 2001. Around 26 billion euros (£17.4bn) has been paid for 3.3 billion barrels of oil into an escrow account in New York. The Iraqi account, held at BNP Paribas, has also been earning a higher rate of interest in euros than it would have in dollars. The point here is there are a lot of different types of control. The NSA monitors and collects literally all electronic communications; internet, phone calls, everything. They listen in even to encrypted voice calls with high powered microphones, devices like cellphones equipped with recording devices (See original “Clipper” chip). It’s very difficult to communicate on planet Earth in private, without the NSA listening. So it is only logical that they would also want complete control of the financial system, including records of all electronic transactions, which Bitcoin provides. Could there be an ‘additional’ security layer baked into the Blockchain that is undetectable, that allows the NSA to see more information about transactions, such as network location data? It wouldn’t be so far fetched, considering their past work, such as Xerox copy machines that kept a record of all copies made (this is going back to the 70’s, now it’s common). Of course security experts will point to the fact that this layer remains invisible, but if this does exist – of course it would be hidden. More to the point about the success of Bitcoin – its design is very solid, robust, manageable – this is not the work of a student. Of course logically, the NSA employs individuals, and ultimately it is the work of mathematicians, programmers, and cryptographers – but if we deduce the most likely group capable, willing, and motivated to embark on such a project, the NSA is the most likely suspect. Universities, on the other hand, didn’t product white papers like this from 1996. Another question is that if it was the NSA, why didn’t they go through more trouble concealing their identity? I mean, the internet is rife with theories that it was in fact the NSA/CIA and “Satoshi Nakamoto” means in Japanese “Central Intelligence” – well there are a few answers for this, but to be congruent with our argument, it fits their profile. Where could this ‘hidden layer’ be? Many think it could be in the public SHA-256, developed by NSA (which ironically, was the encryption algorithm of choice for Bitcoin – they could have chosen hundreds of others, which arguably are more secure): Claims that the NSA created Bitcoin have actually been flung around for years. People have questioned why it uses the SHA-256 hash function, which was designed by the NSA and published by the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST). The fact that the NSA is tied to SHA-256 leads some to assume it’s created a backdoor to the hash function that no one has ever identified, which allows it to spy on Bitcoin users. “If you assume that the NSA did something to SHA-256, which no outside researcher has detected, what you get is the ability, with credible and detectable action, they would be able to forge transactions. The really scary thing is somebody finds a way to find collisions in SHA-256 really fast without brute-forcing it or using lots of hardware and then they take control of the network,” cryptography researcher Matthew D. Green of Johns Hopkins University said in a previous interview. Then there’s the question of “Satoshi Nakamoto” – if it was in fact the NSA, why not just claim ownership of it? Why all the cloak and dagger? And most importantly, if Satoshi Nakamoto is a real person, and not a group that wants to remain secret – WHY NOT come forward and claim your nearly $3 Billion worth of Bitcoin (based on current prices). Did the NSA create Satoshi Nakamoto? The CIA Project, a group dedicated to unearthing all of the government’s secret projects and making them public, hasreleased a video claiming Bitcoin is actually the brainchild of the US National Security Agency. The video entitled CIA Project Bitcoin: Is Bitcoin a CIA or NSA project? claims that there is a lot of compelling evidences that proves that the NSA is behind Bitcoin. One of the main pieces of evidence has to do with the name of the mysterious man, woman or group behind the creation of Bitcoin, “Satoshi Nakamoto”. According to the CIA Project, Satoshi Nakamoto means “Central Intelligence” in Japanese. Doing a quick web search, you’ll find out that Satoshi is usually a name given for baby boys which means “clear thinking, quick witted, wise,” while Nakamoto is a Japanese surname which means ‘central origin’ or ‘(one who lives) in the middle’ as people with this surname are found mostly in the Ryukyu islands which is strongly associated with the Ry?ky? Kingdom, a highly centralized kingdom that originated from the Okinawa Islands. So combining Nakamoto and Satoshi can be loosely interpreted as “Central Intelligence”. Is it so really hard to believe? This is from an organization that until the Snowden leaks, secretly recorded nearly all internet traffic on the network level by splicing fiber optic cables. They even have a deep-sea splicing mission that will cut undersea cables and install intercept devices. Making Bitcoin wouldn’t even be a big priority at NSA. Certainly, anonymity is one of the biggest myths about Bitcoin. In fact, there has never been a more easily traceable method of payment. Every single transaction is recorded and retained permanently in the public “blockchain”. The idea that the NSA would create an anarchic, peer-to-peer crypto-currency in the hope that it would be adopted for nefarious industries and become easy to track would have been a lot more difficult to believe before the recent leaks by Edward Snowden and the revelation that billions of phone calls had been intercepted by the US security services. We are now in a world where we now know that the NSA was tracking the pornography habits of Islamic “radicalisers” in order to discredit them and making deals with some of the world’s largest internet firms to insert backdoors into their systems. And we’re not the only ones who believe this, in Russia they ‘know’ this to be true without sifting through all the evidence. Nonetheless, Svintsov’s remarks count as some of the more extreme to emanate from the discussion. Svintsov told Russian broadcast news agency REGNUM:“All these cryptocurrencies [were] created by US intelligence agencies just to finance terrorism and revolutions.”Svintsov reportedly went on to explain how cryptocurrencies have started to become a payment method for consumer spending, and cited reports that terrorist organisations are seeking to use the technology for illicit means. Let’s elaborate on what is ‘control’ as far as the NSA is concerned. Bitcoin is like the prime mover. All future cryptocurrencies, no matter how snazzy or functional – will never have the same original keys as Bitcoin. It created a self-sustained, self-feeding bubble – and all that followed. It enabled law enforcement to collect a host of criminals on a network called “Silk Road” and who knows what other operations that happened behind the scenes. Because of pesky ‘domestic’ laws, the NSA doesn’t control the internet in foreign countries. But by providing a ‘cool’ currency as a tool, they can collect information from around the globe and like Facebook, users provide this information voluntarily. It’s the same strategy they use like putting the listening device in the chips at the manufacturing level, which saves them the trouble of wiretapping, electronic eavesdropping, and other risky methods that can fail or be blocked. It’s impossible to stop a cellphone from listening to you, for example (well not 100%, but you have to physically rewire the device). Bitcoin is the same strategy on a financial level – by using Bitcoin you’re giving up your private transactional information. By itself, it would not identify you per se (as the blockchain is ‘anonymous’ but the transactions are there in the public register, so combined with other information, which the NSA has a LOT OF – they can triangulate their information more precisely. That’s one problem solved with Bitcoin – another being the economic problem of QE (although with a Bitcoin market cap of $44 Billion, that’s just another day at the Fed buying MBS) – and finally, it squashes the idea of sovereignty although in a very, very, very subtle way. You see, a country IS a currency. Until now, currency has always been tied to national sovereignty (although the Fed is private, USA only has one currency, the US Dollar, which is exclusively American). Bitcoin is a super-national currency, or really – the world’s first one world currency. Of course, this is all great praise for the DOD which seems to have a 50 year plan – but after tens of trillions spent we’d hope that they’d be able to do something better than catching terrorists (which mostly are artificial terrorists)
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XE TRADER Sept.2015 REVIEW | A Scam Review? | Under The Bonnet Investigation
I personally don’t have time or money to waste on anything that smells like a scammy product or service. That’s why in early September when this product first flashed across my screen, I was compelled to investigate. “What the……. is this?” was my initial response. This might sound harsh, however, if you, the consumer are looking for shortcuts to earn and learn how to get rich overnight using Binary Option Trading as your vehicle, you really need to ask yourself the hard questions before incinerating money on products that promise quick riches. Now, fast forward to today, my comments are still emphatic, however once you read this article and review my findings you will be surprised. Throughout this article we will identifying and asking the hard questions one should ponder before purchasing any type of Auto or Semi-Auto-Trader based software. Please read and pay special attention to this article, by the end you will be educated enough to decide whether or not this product is worth investing your time and money in.
WARNING: If you are a new or an existing Binary Options trader, you must be well aware that 90% of people trading Binary Options lose their money. To avoid black holes one should train their minds to acquire a tool set that will not only assist you identifying daily trades, but also provides you the the ability to read the markets, simplifying trend analysis and most importantly educating oneself to trade effectively. Don’t fall into the trap of receiving signals and resorting to blind trading, i.e. roll the dice, cross your fingers and hope for the best.
Q1. In a competitive market, what is the purpose and point of difference with XE Trader? Answer: As a trader you have a collection of tools you use to trade, to illustrate you may have a set of tools, i.e. a knife, screw driver, pick, metal file, corkscrew etc. XE Trader is packed with many all in one features similar to that of a Swiss Army Knife, features that will enhance your trading experience. XE Trader is delivered to you as a platform not an application with its versatility you can install third party applications within this platform. September 2015, the claim has been made that “XE Trader is the world's most advanced currency pair trend indicator and signals robot designed specifically for binary options trading”. How so? “XE Trader is packed with feature rich enhancements that improve your trading experience”. The main purpose behind XE Trader is to serve as an aid in assisting traders with their understanding of trades, where the information comes from, so they can spot opportunities on their own as they arise within the markets.
Q2. Who’s behind this product, what’s their history? are they known criminals/scammers? Answer: XE Trader is brought to you by the world's largest privately owned binary options trader education company Options XE. Education in the form of Trading Webinars is a core part of Option XE's business. Following 3 years of development EX Trader is now the successor of the worlds first binary options robot Optionbot 2, their first creation. Over the years many trading bots have been released into the market, within weeks/months they crash and burn, never to be seen again. Optionbot 2 on the other hand has been and still in circulation, very popular and profitable since day one. This in itself attributes to the success of OptionXE’s first live OptionBot. “In short the XE Trader platform is more than a trading tool, it’s an all encompassing service which will help you win more trades and learn how to become a more effective trader”. The brains and brawn behind OptionBot2 and XE Trader include.
Keith Wareing.............CEO of OptionXE Jack Travers................Services Director Ben Newman...............Operations Director
As a collective these guys have been in the trading and training business for decades. Now totaling 30 staff, and a trained based of over 20,000 students, these guy’s leave no stone upturned when it comes to providing great support and training backing a solid product. The XE Trader product is a culmination of all of that work that as company Option EX achieved to date. All of their trading experience have been encapsulated into a single computer Window so you the trader can learn how to trade more effectively from home.
Q3. What are the key product features and how will these prove advantageous to me? Answer: a. Trend Indicator in also build in across 15 currency pairs. b. Push signals are available across all 30 assets, All signals provided within this platform are passed on via proven leading signal providers. c. Copy trade signals are also made available. These are particularly useful when you are attending one of Ben Newman's webinars, all of which live trading is performed on behalf attendees as they learn how to become familiar with the XE Trader trading platform. d. SMS Alerts e. Economic trading calendar: To keep you apprised of market conditions ahead of time at a glance. f. Market opening times alarm clock g. Accurate Zoomable Price Charts h. Embedded trader insight videos and bulletins surrounding market announcements and events, videos and bulletins are available on the fly.
Q4. If this is a signal service how does it connect with my existing broker? Answer: As an improvement from OptionBot2’s costly and strict broker entry requirements of 3 to 5 must have registered brokers The entry requirement for XE TRADER is just the one broker. You can even use your existing broker.
Q5. How much does this product cost? Are there any hidden costs? What’s the catch? Answer: You can pay an all up lifetime licence of 2,999 pounds, includes 1 month subscription to their daily training webinars or you can opt in for the a Free Licence offer, how long this window stays open is anyone’s guess. If this product meets popular demand and takes off as a roaring success, or if it flops, either scenario will undoubtedly have a determination as to this product windows life-cycle period.
Q6. If this sounds like a “Too good to be true” offer, what's the angle, how do the promoters profit? Answer: If the OptionBot2 is anything to go by I don’t believe this product falls into that category.
Q7. What realistically can my expectations be by connecting with this product/service? Answer: Please view the product video. Here you will find reviews by beta testers.
WARNING: As video has been published by OptionsXE, a pinch of salt could be in order, unbiased content? Well you decide. Historical sales and ITM performance form OptionBot2, would suggest that after years of further research and development of XE Trader could be a promising in this industry. What we have here is now called a platform, somewhat more than a trading tool, an all encompassing service that will help you win more trades and learn how to become a more effective trader.
Q8. If I invest in this product and it all goes very wrong, what are my options? Answer: The XE Team behind the development and support for this product are very credible, collectively they have years of knowledge and experience. Ben Newman provides live assistance and training via his complimentary webinars as a service once you register with XE Trader.
To conclude it is refreshing to see a sold rounded product unlike the other scams on the internet. Thank You for reviewing this article, I hope you have found it informative. Please leave a comment below, all the best as you complete you own due diligence and move forward.
1. Always remember when testing out any new trading ventures, manual or automatic, make sure you have a money management plan, once you have a strategy in place stick with it.
2. A FREE trading DEMO account is a great way to test out new strategies so you don’t go bust in the process. 3. Not all brokers are made equal when it comes to great customer service, being able to withdraw funds, having a user friendly, easy to use trading platform to work with. I have traded with a countless number of brokers, some I have had nightmare experiences. I prefer to trade only using industry regulated brokers tick all the boxes, as above ( I have listed these below). If you are not sure, try out one of the brokers listed below, do a background check as required, they will provide you with a demo account on request.
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